Lets go on - step#2 - The types of NUMBERS - Statistics, Infographics, Charts and Data Structures - and computing MY Death/Risk Rate using JH Data

Understanding Data and its Forms of Expression

 Lessons in Applied Math:

The types of NUMBERS

Statistics

Infographics & Charts

GIS systems

 Update: Most images are now clickable - they link to the JH Main or US Covid 19 Maps

    The types of numbers we encounter in school: the integers, rational and real are not that useful here - too simple and static. For example a persons temperature is a REAL (decimal) number. But when we include the date/time/place and what scale (C or F)  and decimal places (precision) - it gets complex soon - it is a time series and a data set too as a whole ...

    The numbers we need to understand are percentages, statistics and randomness to better grasp the pandemic information.

    WHY?

    Because the data we will use is relative to the regions population - note the word RELATIVE. We divide the cases we are considering by the total population.

    ...

    For example to compute Covid 19 mortality in YOUR region or YOUR family region (and this must be like a city or county - you need a large data set to be accurate) do this:

     jh map

    NUMBER OF DEATHS DUE TO COVID 19

    DIVIDED BY

    COUNT OF CONFIRMED COVID 19 CASES

    The JHC charts will give you that number if you select the death stats and zoom to your region. We will explain that soon below.

    Randomness creeps in since the mortality and associated numbers change daily or hourly, and the denominator nor numerator counts are perfect. IF the errors in them are almost proportional the percent is very accurate.

    ...

    But if for example if in a region there has been limited Covid 19 testing then the denominator is not accurate. We need a LARGE sample of tests to be accurate here. There can also be deaths not counted by Covid 19 that are actually covid 19. They may have also died in another region?

    ---

    There are many small counties in the USA with very few deaths, like less than 10, these data is possibly not very good for these calculations. Maybe caused by there are really no cases or there is not enough testing?

     

     

    Were to get info from? 

    I started using WHO data, but for USA the JH University is excellent.

    Note: the JH data arrangement may change, if it does just follow the main ideas.

    We suggest: AVOID all sources that derive from other datasets (bing, yahoo, google etc) these just reprocess the info and are lacking in the depth needed.

    A golden rule is to get the information as close to the SOURCE as possible. So if you are seeing a lot of deaths in your area - taka that as the best info you have.

    Lets use this John Hopkins (JH) link:

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

    Note: what is this JH data type?

    Thus is a GIS or GRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM from ESRI. A great development in IT. It combines a database data and coordinate data, map boundaries data, city, roads etc with some specific data set (covid 19 here) under study with graphical/infographic tools.

    Here JH uses a GIS with datasets from many US/World sources into a single map. A massive server stores dynamically all the data for multiple products in these tools (charts etc) and is also capable of receiving your queries and responding quickly. Data is updated once per day to allow the system to pull county-level data.

    Example case of Mortality by

    Covid 19 in YOUR region:

    We will 1st do the numbers, and 2nd the shortcut. But do the numbers first to understand the other method.

    WE ASSUME FOR THE EXAMPLE YOU LIVE IN

    KINGS County in NY

     The left side of the JH Covid 19 main page for USA has the TOP 50 confirmed cases by COUNTY and the right side has the TOP 20 counties by number of deaths. In a sense the right side Top 20 of deaths are possibly the most dangerous counties in the US.

    kings NY

    queens ny covid 19 deaths

    Now divide these two numbers for the same region KINGS NY - and for the same date 5/20/2020 - that is then: 5,085  (deaths) divided by 54,817 (confirmed) or 

    5,085/54,817 = 0.09276 or

    9.28%

    with a little rounding on 2nd decimal.

    Note: The basic percent formula is N% = N/100. So from above 9.28% = 9.28/100 = 0.0928 (to divide by 100 is to move the decimal 2 places to the right:

    9.0-->0.9 -->0.09

    Ratios have many ways of expression:

    Thus the 9.28% and 0.0928 or 9.28/100 are the same number or ratio

    Rounding:

    The rule is that if the next digit is 5 or more we can round the digit to the left to 1 more decimal if below 9 - the 7 in 0.09276 becomes 8 in 0.0928 since 6 is over 5 and after the 7. It just simplifies the number. It can also be rounded to 9.3% or 9% but then the error is much larger. I prefer the 9.3%.

    ,,,

    Mistakes to avoid:

    1. Be sure of the region/county you want

    2. Be sure you pick the same region in confirmed cases and death cases

    3. Be sure the deaths are divided by the confirmed for the same date/region

    Now the Shortcut:

    click on the link below, select US Map

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

    Have the JH Map ready for the

    'U.S. Map'

    It looks like this

    (clickable link to JH Covid 19 Site):

    JH map covid 19

     

    Step#1 

    Now select the FATALITY RATE tab below the US Map:

    fatality rate tab

    Select the Fatality Rate Tab

     

    Step#2

    Zoom into the New York state since in your example we want Kings NY

    OR FOR YOUR SPECIFIC NEED:

     Click

    on YOUR region on the NY USA Map

    Then The GIS tool will automatically ZOOM to your region.

    The region** should be visible now - the boundary of it in light blue - verify its what you want.

    (**where you/your family spend most of the time exposed)

    Covid 19 JH map kings NY 5-20-2020 epidemiology - part 1 of 3 deaths ration

    Step# 3

     Get the status report for your region:

    The report below (an infographics) will appear automatically after clicking on the region - magic!

    Covid 19 status report for Kings NY

    This tool (GIS) is interactive - when you click the KINGS NY region (in our example) the region is marked and the STATUS REPORTS appears. You can save that file now.

    Step#4

    Inspect the number on the

    right bottom side corner

    The icon looks like a battery 

    IGNORE ALL OTHER STUFF ON THE PAGE

    (Most info is specialized epidemiology/medical/hospital related)

    That is the MORTALITY RATE FOR KINGS county, NY, ON THIS DATE.

     Covid 19 JH map kings NY 5-20-2020 epidemiology - part 2 of 3 deaths ration

    IT IS THE SAME WE CALCULATED: 

    The County Fatality Rate

    for those Confirmed with Covid 19 is

    9.28 %

    FOR KINGS county NY on

    5-30-2020

    Covid 19 JH map kings NY 5-20-2020 epidemiology - part 3 of 3 deaths ration

    Now the interpretation of this:

    (this is subjective)

    It is awesome for me, assuming Covid 19 goes unchecked for long enough in Kings NY and people are not protected, 9 out of 100 will get the illness, and about 4%-6% of them will die using the world wide mortality for Covid 19. That is 4 out of 100 die if infected for Covid 19 in general.

     

    Personally, with that high percentage of 9.28% IF my family were in Kings NY, I would immediately move them out for the time needed. That is why i wrote this blog.

    When I calculated that weeks ago - i could not believe it. And it has remained stable at 9%, with a small sign of flattening - see the chart:

    JH mortaility

    Finished on finding your regions mortality

    HOW TO GET THE OVERAL RISK OF YOUR COUNTRY:

    Even thou the region you live is most relevant, we should know the overall death rate for the entire country, for comparisons purposes.

    Click on the link below, select WORLD Map

    Only in the WORLD map we can see the overall counts of the US as a whole - or click on the image below

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    jh world map

    Now we locate the CONFIRMED CASES FOR US (OR YOUR COUNTRY) ON THE LEFT SIDE (UNDER TOTAL CONFIRMED) AND THE ON THE RIGHT SIDE THE COUNT FOR DEATHS IN THE US.

    AS OF THIS DATE 6-1-20 WE HAVE 1,809,109 CONFIRMED US AND 105,099 DEATHS. TO GET THE FATALITY RATE OF COVID 19 FOR US THEN DIVIDE THE NUMBER OF DEATHS BY THE COUNT OF CONFIRMED CASES:

     105,099  / 1,809,109 =  0.05809 = 5.8/100 OR 5.8%

    SOME WILL ROUND THIS TO 6%

    SO WE SEE IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY  LESS THAN THE 9.3% OF KINGS COUNTY OF NYC

    FOR COMPLETENESS THE USA COVID 19 MAP ON THIS DATE :

    (You need to ZOOM on the USA map to see the detail as it is today - note that after the East Coast region the US central regions are much less populated due to mountains and deserts, the states close to Canada are also very depopulated due to extreme cold)

    US COVID 19 MAP

    FOR COMPLETENESS THE USA COVID 19 MORTAILITY BAR CHART AS OF THIS DATE

    (select the chart on the right bottom and press the arrows to enlarge)

    ---

    us mortality

     ----

    ANOTHER WORLD - ANOTHER APPROACH

    VIETNAM

    Vietnam

    Hanoi - Vietnam

     

    Prolog:

    VIETNAM

    On 5-30-20 ZERO COVID-19 DEATHS!

    I just read that now in VIETNAM they have ZERO Covid 19 deaths and about 300 cases with a population about 1/4 of the USA or 94M. And Vietnam is next to China.

    How:

    Mostly of the people and government there are experienced with previous SARS epidemics. The population knows and is obedient. Last 

    THEY REACTED VERY EARLY and QUICKLY

    THEY QUICKLY CLOSED AIR ROUTES TO CHINA, VERIFIED ALL INCOMING PEOPLE FOR TEMPERATURE AND IF NEEDED ISOLATED THEM. DID AN AGGRESSIVE CONTACT TRACING ETC.

    THE IS NO SUBSTITUTE IN LIFE FOR A TIMELY REACTION

    Quoting:

    "Guy Thwaites, an infectious disease doctor who works in one of the main hospitals designated by the Vietnamese government to treat Covid-19 patients, said the numbers matched the reality on the ground.

    "If you had unreported or uncontrolled community transmission, then we'll be seeing cases in our hospital, people coming in with chest infections perhaps not diagnosed -- that has never happened," he said.

    I go to the wards every day, I know the cases, I know there has been no death," said Thwaites, who also heads the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Ho Chi Minh City."

    ---

    Also by comparison what did they NOT Do:

    They did not POLITIZE what by nature is a medical/life issue.

    They did not try to make profits from the pandemic.

    They listened to the WHO warnings early on.

    They had their own epidemiology data intelligence organization giving early warnings. That is like the CDC in the USA. But the president would not listen until it was LATE ...

    REF: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/29/asia/coronavirus-vietnam-intl-hnk/index.html?ref=hvper.com

    --- 

    See the past below - scary:

    black plague workers

    Black plague workers.

    IF this does not scare you then I failed!

     

    Note on where to click - a subjective issue:

    1. If you live/sleep in New Jersey for example, but work on Kings NY and your children go to school in NJ. Then you may need to compute different death probabilities due to Covid 19.

    2. If you are not healthy, aged or very exposed job (doctor etc) then you need some adjustment or assume it is worse. The point is that you should not use for YOUR case  the NJ numbers since you only sleep there and chance of exposure is small - unless your children get it? ***. But since you take trains, eat and work in Kings NY, then use those numbers. As you can see it gets complex soon...

    school

    NOTES ON SCHOOLS AND SUPER-SPREADERS:

     

    *** Note: As a Masters Math student I worked on a class project on Math Modelling on Epidemiological models and I choose the case of schools. There are MANY reasons why they are one of the worst scenarios for the spread of contagious illness as any parent knows...

    1. Students are arranged in SAME AGE groups

    2. Make students  that cough too much to seek attention

    3. Students are too close and interact a lot, kissing, touching, talking  etc

    4. Many events ideal for spreading - sports, dances, social, study groups, lib

    5. Schools like most are not known to filter air with UV etc

    6. Schools like most are not known to have a robust air circulation system

    7. There are many places. door knobs, tables, chairs, bathrooms, water fountains, food machines, computers and desks they share

    8. Many will come even if ILL due to school/exams pressures

    9. A single TEACHER can infect a large number of students

    10. Hygiene may not be the best possible - microbes or viruses are not visible

    11. Reducing each of these will help, hints for this are on the next section

     

    crowded office

    NOTES ON JOBS/CORPS AND SUPER-SPREADERS:

    In an IT job in a aerospace company i developed a system for leave mgt - including sick leaves. Seeing huge sickness spikes i investigated. These are some of my findings we need to STOP in the work/corp workplace:

    1. Do not pressure employees to come to work sick

    2. Eliminate payment for unused sick time

    3. Review your HR policy that rewards people for coming sick

    4. Implement UV on A/C pipes and a very ROBUST air circulation

    5. Eliminate the stigma of being sick and allow work from home if needed

    6. Request employees that cough too much to seek attention

    7. Train supervisors and mgrs to see signs of illness and how to respond

    8. Clean the place often, do not overcrowd facilities

    9. Make shifts for cafeteria, work etc to avoid crowding

    10. Use Face masks or neck gaiters

    11. Promote health - have group walks outside  etc.

    12. Apply the WHO and CDC and other gudelines for Covid 19

    cattle ship from au

    LESSONS FROM A CATTLE SHIP FROM AUSTRALIA TO ASIA

    In my research i found this amazing case:

    There is a cattle ship that travels from Australia to Asia and only transports about 5,000 heads of cattle to Asia. The cattle is very crowded (they will  not have cabins for them) but ONLY ONE COW GETS SICK AND DIES ON THE AVERAGE TRIP OF TWO WEEKS!

    How they do it?

    Simple - they have such a ROBUST AIR CIRCULATION that the air breathed from one cow will be immediately expelled, and replaced with fresh air from the ocean.

    For schools or companies that have a nice surrounding (park's etc) this is feasible too. Having and inspecting and disinfecting the A/C frequently is also a must.

    NOTES ON SUPER-SPREADERS - THE AIRLINES, SHIPS,TRAINS,BUS

    We need to recondition by LAW these transport methods.

    Pay incentives as needed. They need much better A/C and FASTER AIR CIRCULATION. Expose all common touch points to UV lights. Require masks.

    Specially planes and ships are naturally in wide areas of clean open air - put that to use - circulate the air fast.

    You need some redesign of these transports, but this must be done to restore confidence and bring their income to normal levels.

    ...

    WHY THIS IS FAR BETTER THAN A COVID-19 VACCINE?

    Vaccines take a long time to develop, and virus can mutate quickly.

    But having better A/C with UV systems kills ALL VIRUES AND BACTERIA IN ALL FORMS OF TRANSPORT, SCHOOL OR JOBS.

    THIS IS A LASTING SOLUTION WHERE IT IS NEEDED.

    ---
    ...

    std dev

    Computing the std deviation

    Or how far is the data from the mean

    Now Statistics - Oh God ...

    Please dont run!

    correlation

    To brag a little - my favorite Linear Correlation formula

    (measures clustering)

    Technically - statistics is an applied branch of math that is based on probability and it uses many very advanced methods of advanced calculus and math in general. You need advanced degrees to fully understand where it's methods come from but not to understand the results of these methods.

    But statistical methods are not perfect, they make assumptions about a population and these may not be 100% valid or correct. Let start with a wiki definition for speed:

    What is the simple definition of statistics?

    Statistics is a branch of mathematics dealing with data collection, organization, analysis, interpretation and presentation. ... In addition to being the name of a field of study, the word "statistics" also refers to numbers that are used to describe data or relationships.

     

    So coldly speaking, the affected by the Pandemic will become statistics.

    The count of infected, recovered, dead. For a given time period.

    So - often statistics have the form of a time series.

    I do not get here deep since there are many web resources for statistics.

    Next i show and infographic that is a mix of data, statistics, charts and in my humble opinion way too much useless data - such as races - typical of the USA.

    I would suggest JH to produce a GIS for the common person with only relevant info. To clutter infographics with a lot of assorted info for multiple audiences is not an effective means of communication - this i created this tutorial.

    Some example of the complexities of data:

    They have already come with results that 'blacks are more likely to get infected'. But this may not consider that due to centuries, not years, 100's of years of discrimination and abuse they live in the poorest regions with no or poor health case. In my opinion this 1/0 or binary pattern of thinking, Black vs White etc is a sign of the simpleminded. They just show how naïve they are in believing this. When they see a rain cloud they see white cloud vs black cloud, they can not see the beauty in the millions of shades of gray...

    History has shown that in pandemics it is the rich that are first to leave the region.

     

    COVID NYC DATA JOHN HOPKINS

     

    Charts

    Charts are simpler and thus often easy to understand. They may be bar chars, pie chars (percentages)  or colored maps as below. Usually they have one dimension or data type and thus are one of the best way to convey complex or large data sets. The map below has multiple data sets combined for a span of 7 years.

    Spread of the Black Death in Europe and the Near East (1346–1353)

    Est. 75,000,000 - 200,000,000 in less than 10 years

    black plague map 1500's

     

    The above data and charts bring some good lessons when we extrapolate from past (ie: ancient) data to the present:

    1. Research in UK black plague burials show most were victims of starvation years before, that made the general population weaker and explains the widespread of the black plague.

    2. Apply that to Covid 19 and if the financial stress leads to lack a food this will result in a population less able to survive the other waves of the pandemic

    3. The number of deaths is relative to those times (1346-1353) thus the world population was way smaller, thus it is estimated about half of the worlds population died.

    4. The chart uses colors to mark the time of the plaque and arrows for land routes, sea routes and even religious boundaries.

     Data Structures

    This is a big central information technology topic or IT.

    In summary there are  many forms or ways to organize and store digitally information for efficient retrieval and programming.

    An infographics has several data structures hidden or implied. Any document and specially FORMS has an implied complex (several) data structures.

    Basically when multiple data tokens or sets have relations among them we have a data structure.

    In this epidemic issue we have these related info as example:

    1. patient name and id

    2. where he/she got sick?

    3. did he/she survive - how long was he sick? Date started/ended and where

    4. key attributes: age, sex, location, previous conditions, fitness

    5. contact tracing: who he/she may have infected

    6. active spreader: did he/she show symptoms - yes/no

    7. is he/she a mother or household owner - how many sons etc

    8. do his/her children go to school - where?

    9. did he attend some large gathering?

    10. did he travel recently?

    11. medical record if infected: daily temp, breathing etc

    Some Data structures:

    We see below that from 1 single spreader there will be a **TREE STRUCTURE formed of the people he/she contacts and some may acquire the illness, and then each infected person becomes a separate tree structure.

    This results in a VERY fast spread.

    Fast both in time and in region since we have fast transports like airplane widely available, not to mention trains, bus, cars and ships. Actually history has shown that pandemics are often spread VERY fast and wide due to some large scale event:

    The Spanish Flu was spread fast by WWI soldiers travelling in trains and ships.

    The Covid 19 may have been spread early and faster by military exercises.

    For Covid 19 the average is about 1 infected infects 3-5 more. There are cases of 1 person infected that infected 50 people.

    About 30% do not show symptoms but can infect others.

    ** Tree structures are represent by an source point and arrows from it going down. Then any other vertex can have other arrows, The do not connect back.

    data structures types

    Basically it is this (geometric) series approximately (powers of 2):

    1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1028...

    Notes on Common Data Structures:

    The personal records of people usually are stored in the database format.

    Lists use the flat file model.

    Databases are able to store complex relations and query on them (SQL). DB's are designed for shared data and shared updating - and can be accessed by many users at the same time over a LAN or WEB. It has robust security and data controls.

    Object oriented (OOP) data structures are used in OOP programming where often a relational model (RDBMS) is converted into objects for processing.

    A spreadsheet tool like Excel uses a matrix model of data - where data and formulas are stored in cells. It is both a list (rows) and database (columns) but with minimal data verification and controls. It is also not ideal for sharing data.

    A document system like Word is like a list of sentences. It's main function is formatting them into paragraphs, managing fonts etc. Words are the main unit.